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Grey Lotka–Volterra model and its application

Author

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  • Wu, Lifeng
  • Liu, Sifeng
  • Wang, Yinao

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the two variables and to predict the values of two variables in the social system or economic system. Based on the grey modeling method, a grey Lotka–Volterra model is proposed, and a linear programming method is used to estimate the parameters of the grey Lotka–Volterra model under the criterion of the minimization of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The obtained simulation results have been verified by three cases: the study of research and development investment (R&D) and gross domestic product (GDP), the study of fixed assets investment (FAI) and the (CPI), the study of energy consumption and the GDP. Comparisons of the obtained results with the traditional grey model demonstrate that the grey Lotka–Volterra model is able to analyze the relationship between the two variables and predict the values of these variables effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Lifeng & Liu, Sifeng & Wang, Yinao, 2012. "Grey Lotka–Volterra model and its application," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1720-1730.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:9:p:1720-1730
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Kajikawa, Yuya & Mejia, Cristian & Wu, Mengjia & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Academic landscape of Technological Forecasting and Social Change through citation network and topic analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Bani-Yaghoub, Majid & Reed, Aaron, 2018. "A methodology to quantify the long-term changes in social networks of competing species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 147-157.
    3. Yang, Chunyu & Huang, Jue & Lin, Zhibin & Zhang, Danxia & Zhu, Ying & Xu, Xinghua & Chen, Mei, 2018. "Evaluating the symbiosis status of tourist towns: The case of Guizhou Province, China," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-125.

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