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Knowledge based dynamic human population models

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  • Okuducu, Mahmut Burak
  • Aral, Mustafa M.

Abstract

Human population models have evolved from demographic models to information based models and eventually to knowledge production based models. In this study dynamic population models based on knowledge production are used to evaluate the effect of productivity functions and variable Earth potential capacity definition on population estimates. In dynamic population models, the Earth's carrying capacity is not defined as a constant, but it is defined as a function of time dependent knowledge level. The models developed require only two calibration parameters, thus they are suitable for predictive analysis. The results indicate that maximum population level estimates on Earth will be around 8–12 billion people within the next century, after which populations will be in a declining trend at different rates given the impacts of environmental degradation which is interpreted as the outcome of technologic developments. The use of lower technologic knowledge levels, which is identified as environmentally friendly technologies, will provide several centuries of high population levels which is encouraging.

Suggested Citation

  • Okuducu, Mahmut Burak & Aral, Mustafa M., 2017. "Knowledge based dynamic human population models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dolgonosov, B.M., 2010. "On the reasons of hyperbolic growth in the biological and human world systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(13), pages 1702-1709.
    2. Dolgonosov, Boris M., 2016. "Knowledge production and world population dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 127-141.
    3. Taagepera, Rein, 2014. "A world population growth model: Interaction with Earth's carrying capacity and technology in limited space," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 34-41.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Court & Florent Mc Isaac, 2019. "A Representation of the World Population Dynamics for Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers hal-03192539, HAL.
    2. Court Victor & Florent Mc Isaac, 2019. "A Representation of the World Population Dynamics for Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers hal-03192539, HAL.
    3. Márton, Lőrinc, 2022. "Modeling and migration-based control of depopulation," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 86-94.
    4. Aral, Mustafa M., 2020. "Knowledge based analysis of continental population and migration dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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