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Controversial curves of the economy: An up-to-date investigation of long waves

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  • Focacci, Antonio

Abstract

The question of the validity of the “so called” Kondratieff's theory of long waves has been a well-known controversial issue among historians, economic, social and political science scholars. In this work, the author analyses its consistency and cycles general framework investigating both original Kondratieff's data (never processed by harmonic analysis in their whole dataset) and the latest and longest available economic time-series. Fixing the boundaries of statistical analysis, hence, the main purpose is to furnish an up-to-date empirical contribution in exploring the conceptual cycles hypothesis by recurring to dedicated quantitative techniques applied to strictly economic datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Focacci, Antonio, 2017. "Controversial curves of the economy: An up-to-date investigation of long waves," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 271-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:116:y:2017:i:c:p:271-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jutasompakorn, Pearpilai & Brooks, Robert & Brown, Christine & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Banking crises: Identifying dates and determinants," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 150-166.
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    6. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    7. Julián A. Caballero, 2016. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 281-316, March.
    8. Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency crises and dynamics of real wages," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(2), pages 377-403, May.
    9. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2016. "Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 165-199, January.
    10. Klotz, Benjamin P & Neal, Larry, 1973. "Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis of the Long-Swing Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(3), pages 291-298, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Betz, Ulrich A.K. & Betz, Frederick & Kim, Rachel & Monks, Brendan & Phillips, Fred, 2019. "Surveying the future of science, technology and business – A 35 year perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 137-147.
    2. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long waves; Business cycles; Spectral analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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