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Impact of monetary policy shocks in the Peruvian economy over time

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  • Pérez Rojo, Flavio
  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

Abstract

We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter VAR models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatility of MP shocks falls during the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (ii) a contractionary MP shock decreases both GDP growth and inflation within a five quarters time span; (iii) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (iv) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, inflation, and the interest rate, respectively; and under the IT regime, all these percentages shrink to 1%–2%. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the main results. In general, the results show that MP has contributed to diminishing macroeconomic volatility in Peru.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez Rojo, Flavio & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2024. "Impact of monetary policy shocks in the Peruvian economy over time," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 270-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:71:y:2024:i:c:p:270-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying parameter VAR; Stochastic volatility; Marginal likelihood; Deviance information criterion; Monetary policy; Peru;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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