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The decline in Australian young male suicide

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  • Morrell, Stephen
  • Page, Andrew N.
  • Taylor, Richard J.

Abstract

Since the late 1990s there has been a sharp downward trend in Australian young male suicide. It is possible that a major government youth suicide prevention initiative, the National Youth Suicide Prevention Strategy (NYSPS), implemented during 1995-1999 may have influenced the decline. In this article, we examine time trends in age- and means-specific male and female Australian suicide rates in relation to unemployment rates and the NYSPS. Based on Australian suicide data over the period 1966-2003, we assess secular changes in the 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide rate ratio in relation to the NYSPS, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA), since this was previously found to be significantly associated with the 20-24 year male unemployment to total employment ratio. Results show that a dramatic reduction in Australian young male (aged 20-34 years) suicide has occurred since 1997-1998, declining from approximately 40 per 100,000 in 1997-1998 to approximately 20 per 100,000 in 2003. Most of the decline is due to a decrease in suicide by hanging and to a lesser extent from motor vehicle carbon monoxide and other gases. Further, the previously established strong secular association (lasting over 3 decades from 1966) between the rate ratio of 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide, and the rate ratio of 20-24 year male unemployment to total unemployment, appears to have been disrupted. ARIMA modelling of the suicide ratio against the initiative indicates a highly significant statistical association between the NYSPS and the suicide ratio reduction but not between the NYSPS and the unemployment indicator trend, suggesting a break in the link between young male suicide and unemployment. The recent sudden turnaround in Australian young male suicide trends and its extent appears to preclude explanations centring on slow-moving social indices traditionally associated with suicide, or on possible cohort effects. This sudden decrease has occurred mainly in non-impulsive means, and at the same time has broken a long-standing secular link between 20 and 24-year-male suicide and unemployment, lending plausibility to the case for the NYSPS having had an impact on young male suicide in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Morrell, Stephen & Page, Andrew N. & Taylor, Richard J., 2007. "The decline in Australian young male suicide," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 747-754, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:64:y:2007:i:3:p:747-754
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morrell, Stephen & Taylor, Richard & Quine, Susan & Kerr, Charles, 1993. "Suicide and unemployment in Australia 1907-1990," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 749-756, March.
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    1. McPhedran, Samara & Baker, Jeanine, 2008. "Recent Australian suicide trends for males and females at the national level: Has the rate of decline differed?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 350-358, September.
    2. Page, Andrew & Milner, Allison & Morrell, Stephen & Taylor, Richard, 2013. "The role of under-employment and unemployment in recent birth cohort effects in Australian suicide," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 155-162.
    3. Pearce, Jamie & Barnett, Ross & Jones, Irfon, 2007. "Have urban/rural inequalities in suicide in New Zealand grown during the period 1980-2001?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(8), pages 1807-1819, October.
    4. Thomas Maag, 2008. "Economic Correlates of Suicide Rates in OECD Countries," KOF Working papers 08-207, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Camilla Haw & Keith Hawton & David Gunnell & Stephen Platt, 2015. "Economic recession and suicidal behaviour: Possible mechanisms and ameliorating factors," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 61(1), pages 73-81, February.
    6. Tania L. King & Philip J. Batterham & Helen Lingard & Jorgen Gullestrup & Chris Lockwood & Samuel B. Harvey & Brian Kelly & Anthony D. LaMontagne & Allison Milner, 2019. "Are Young Men Getting the Message? Age Differences in Suicide Prevention Literacy among Male Construction Workers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, February.

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