U.S. Apartheid and the spread of AIDS to the suburbs: A multi-city analysis of the political economy of spatial epidemic threshold

We compare mechanisms of AIDS diffusion at the county level from five U.S. central city epicenters into their associated metropolitan regions. Four of the five show an expanding 'hollowed out' center of physically and socially devastated, politically and economically abandoned high density minority neighborhoods, surrounded by rings of relatively affluent majority suburban populations. From these centers AIDS diffuses into the suburbs as a single, spatially extended disease ecosystem. The exception, San Francisco, has not yet experienced the 'hollowing out' process and is, we conclude, a major AIDS epicenter markedly less coupled to its suburbs because of that fact. This may constitute one of the few empirical observations of spatial threshold in epidemiology. Our empirical results contradict the conclusions of a recent National Research Council report that AIDS will be largely confined within marginalized urban populations. In reality U.S. urban apartheid, particularly its continuing disruption of minority social structures, has markedly accelerated the diffusion of AIDS into suburban communities. A widespread program of reform, which rebuilds minority physical and social community structures within both city and suburb, is an essential, but largely unrecognized, component to any serious strategy for the control of AIDS in the United States.