Does regional economic development drive sustainable grain production growth in China? Evidence from spatiotemporal perspective on low-carbon total factor productivity

Contrary to conventional expectations, the impact of economic development on food green efficiency exhibits pronounced regional heterogeneity. This study utilizes total factor productivity (TFP) as a key metric, establishing a model for carbon emissions from grain production and developing a framework for measuring grain low-carbon TFP growth. Employing the undesirable super-slacks-based measure (SBM) and the Malmquist-Luenberger (ML) index, we assess the low-carbon TFP growth across 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. The Dagum–Gini coefficient and variance decomposition are applied to analyze disparities from both regional and structural perspectives. An econometric model further validates the influence of economic development on low-carbon TFP growth. Our findings reveal that China's technical efficiency (TE) and low carbon TE initially show a declining trend, with the gap between them narrowing over time. The eastern region consistently demonstrates high low-carbon TE, while the northeastern region lags. All regions exhibit positive low-carbon TFP growth, with efficiency change (EC) significantly contributing to this growth. Although economic development generally fosters low-carbon TFP growth, marked regional heterogeneity persists. Interestingly, certain traditionally economically developed regions, such as the eastern region, exert a significantly negative impact on low-carbon TFP growth. Balancing economic development with low-carbon TFP growth remains an ongoing challenge that necessitates effective management strategies.