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Lotto lotteries — Decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown

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  • Schröder, David

Abstract

This paper analyses decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown, similar to a Lotto lottery. In a Lotto lottery, the probability of winning a prize is known, but the size of the prize is unknown. This paper proposes a theoretical framework to model preferences over Lotto lotteries as compound lotteries. The first stage determines whether a prize is obtained, while the second stage determines the size of the prize. Then the paper empirically analyses human behaviour when uncertainty can be described as a Lotto lottery. There is considerable heterogeneity in the subjects’ aversion to lotteries with unknown payoffs. Further analysis shows that choices of decision makers can be best explained by a combination of risk and ambiguity preferences. These results suggest that subjects treat unknown payoffs similar to known payoffs with ambiguous probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Schröder, David, 2025. "Lotto lotteries — Decision making under uncertainty when payoffs are unknown," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:114:y:2025:i:c:s2214804324001472
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2024.102310
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making; Uncertainty; Risk aversion; Lotteries; Ambiguity aversion; Subjective expected utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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