IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v66y2023ics0275531923001745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies

Author

Listed:
  • Bouri, Elie
  • Gabauer, David
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Kinateder, Harald

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the spillovers across monthly inflation rates (measured by the CPI) of advanced North American and European economies. Using data covering the period from May 1963 to November 2022 and a time-varying spillover approach, we show that the total spillover index across the inflation rates spiked during the Russo-Ukrainian war, exceeding its previous peak shown during the 1970s energy crisis. Notably, we apply a quantile-on-quantile regression and reveal that changes in the total spillover index are positively associated with lagged changes in the global geopolitical risk (GPR) index. More specifically, changes in the GPR index are positively impacting all future changes in the inflation spillover index, whereas the GPR Acts index is only positively associated with large future changes in the inflation spillover index. Given that rising levels of inflation are posing risks to the financial system and economic growth, these findings should matter to the central banks and policymakers in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Kinateder, Harald, 2023. "Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001745
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923001745
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
    2. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Batten, Jonathan & Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Nanaeva, Zhamal, 2024. "Metaverse and financial markets: A quantile-time-frequency connectedness analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    2. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    4. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Korzeb, Zbigniew & Niedziółka, Paweł & Nistor, Simona, 2023. "Sovereign creditworthiness and bank foreign ownership. An empirical investigation of the European banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Aljohani, Bader M. & Fadul, Abubaker & Asiri, Maram S. & Alkhathami, Abdulrahman D. & Hasan, Fakhrul, 2024. "Volatility transmission in the property market during two inflationary periods: The 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyu, Chenyan & Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Volatility spillovers and carbon price in the Nordic wholesale electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Cao, Guangxi & Xie, Wenhao, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamic spillover effect between cryptocurrency and China's financial market: Evidence from TVP-VAR based connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2020. "Bayesian Modelling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 2308, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2023.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Greek economic policy uncertainty: Does it matter for Europe? Evidence from a dynamic connectedness decomposition approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    6. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    8. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2025. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 27-43, January.
    9. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    11. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa Sameeh & Canepa, Alessandra, 2024. "Modelling Dynamic Relationships Between Energy Prices and Inflation in Euro Area Using Wavelets," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202420, University of Turin.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Balash, Vladimir & Faizliev, Alexey, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across Russian oil and gas sector. Evidence of the impact of global markets and extraordinary events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and spillovers across sectors: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(3), pages 283-300, July.
    17. Matei, Florin, 2014. "An empirical examination of stock market integration in EMU," MPRA Paper 60717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2022. "The dynamics and determinants of liquidity connectedness across financial asset markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 341-358.
    19. Lyu, Chenyan & Scholtens, Bert, 2022. "Is the Global Carbon Market Integrated? Return and Volatility Connectedness in ETS Systems," Working Papers 7-2022, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, revised 08 Jun 2022.
    20. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI; Inflation spillovers; Geopolitical risk; TVP-VAR; Dynamic connectedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.