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Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models

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  • Trabelsi Mnif, Afef

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings, (the Tunisian Revolution) on the behavior and characteristics of Tunisian stock market cycles over time varying. This paper aims to apply the methodology of univariate structural unobserved components time series models to extract cycle and trend components.

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  • Trabelsi Mnif, Afef, 2017. "Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 206-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:39:y:2017:i:pa:p:206-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.07.029
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    2. Hani El-Chaarani, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Stocks Markets: New Evidence During and After the Arab Spring in Gulf Cooperation Council Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 214-223.
    3. Bakhtiar Javaheri & Fateh habibi & Ramin Amani, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and the US stock market trading: non-ARDL evidence," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    5. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Zhineng Hu & Jing Ma & Liangwei Yang & Liming Yao & Meng Pang, 2019. "Monthly electricity demand forecasting using empirical mode decomposition-based state space model," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(7), pages 1236-1254, November.
    7. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Belcaid, Karim & El Ghini, Ahmed, 2019. "U.S., European, Chinese economic policy uncertainty and Moroccan stock market volatility," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Mohammadi, H. & Abolhasani, L. & Shahnoushi, N. & Shabanian, F., 2018. "The effects of business cycle indicators on stock market indices of food industry in Iran," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277425, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Seyed Alireza Athari & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2023. "World pandemic uncertainty and German stock market: evidence from Markov regime-switching and Fourier based approaches," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1923-1936, April.
    11. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2020. "The effect of domestic and foreign risks on an emerging stock market: A time series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tunisian revolution; Political uncertainty; Stock market cycles; Structural unobserved components; Time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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