IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/revfin/v30y2016icp33-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The incremental information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Moll, Cliff R.
  • Huffman, Stephen P.

Abstract

Motivated by mixed evidence related to the pricing of measures of risk, we investigate the information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility. Using both cross-sectional and time-series methodologies, we find that innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility explain future returns for a sample of 2864 optionable firms examined during the 1999–2010 sample period. We find that long-short portfolios formed using innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility produce much larger abnormal returns than long-short portfolios formed using the level of implied idiosyncratic volatility. We also find that significant (both statistically and economically) abnormal returns continue to be generated for portfolios formed using innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility when the sample is partitioned by: firm size, book-to-market equity, implied idiosyncratic volatility persistence, volatility risk, jump risk and option skewness. Our cross-sectional results lead to similar conclusions and are robust to the inclusion of traditional risk factors. Therefore, our results provide evidence of a significant and, to this point, undetected ex ante measure of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Moll, Cliff R. & Huffman, Stephen P., 2016. "The incremental information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:30:y:2016:i:c:p:33-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2016.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058330016300416
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rfe.2016.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    2. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    3. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    4. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 29-58, March.
    5. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    6. Xing, Yuhang & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2010. "What Does the Individual Option Volatility Smirk Tell Us About Future Equity Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 641-662, June.
    7. Dean Diavatopoulos & James S. Doran & David R. Peterson, 2008. "The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1013-1039, November.
    8. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart & Stivers, Chris, 2006. "Stock Returns, Implied Volatility Innovations, and the Asymmetric Volatility Phenomenon," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 381-406, June.
    9. Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2014. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2279-2337, October.
    10. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    12. Hentschel, Ludger, 2003. "Errors in Implied Volatility Estimation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 779-810, December.
    13. Guo, Hui & Kassa, Haimanot & Ferguson, Michael F., 2014. "On the Relation between EGARCH Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 271-296, February.
    14. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    15. Banerjee, Prithviraj S. & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R., 2007. "Implied volatility and future portfolio returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3183-3199, October.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    18. Yufeng Han & David Lesmond, 2011. "Liquidity Biases and the Pricing of Cross-sectional Idiosyncratic Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1590-1629.
    19. Bali, Turan G. & Murray, Scott, 2013. "Does Risk-Neutral Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Option Portfolio Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1145-1171, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cliff R. Moll & Stephen P. Huffman, 2016. "The incremental information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 33-44, September.
    2. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    3. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    4. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Asset prices and “the devil(s) you know”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-35.
    5. Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Low‐Risk Anomalies?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2673-2718, October.
    6. Huang, Tao & Li, Junye, 2019. "Option-Implied variance asymmetry and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 21-36.
    7. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2020. "Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    9. Kevin Aretz & Ming-Tsung Lin & Ser-Huang Poon, 2023. "Moneyness, Underlying Asset Volatility, and the Cross-Section of Option Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 289-323.
    10. Jennie Bai & Turan G. Bali & Quan Wen, 2019. "Is There a Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Corporate Bond Market? Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    12. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2017. "Idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns: Indian evidence," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1420998-142, January.
    13. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2019. "Belief heterogeneity in the option markets and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Gerlach, Richard & Obaydin, Ivan & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2015. "The impact of leverage on the idiosyncratic risk and return relationship of REITs around the financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 207-219.
    16. Xu, Zhongxiang & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Li, Xiafei, 2019. "Return asymmetry and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 93-110.
    17. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.
    18. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    19. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2019. "Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: influence of macro-finance factors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 381-401, February.
    20. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can skewness predict currency excess returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 628-641.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk–return; Asset pricing; Derivatives; Options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:30:y:2016:i:c:p:33-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.