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Harbor in the storm: How Bitcoin navigates challenges of climate change and global uncertainties

Author

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  • Li, Houjian
  • Luo, Fangyuan
  • Guo, Lili

Abstract

Understanding Bitcoin's (BTC) performance and hedging effects under various uncertainties is crucial. This study combines time-varying Granger causality (TVGC) tests and wavelet time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methods to examine the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and climate uncertainty (SOI), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), crude oil volatility (OVX), and market volatility (VIX) across both time and frequency domains, from December 19, 2017, to October 16, 2023. The results show that in recent years, the long-term impact of SOI on BTC, as well as political and economic uncertainties, is hard to ignore, but BTC cannot serve as a safe-haven asset against SOI. Wavelet decomposition indicates that during extreme events, BTC exhibits a leading positive co-movement with EPU, GPR, VIX, and OVX in the long term, showing potential as a hedging asset. However, TVGC and wavelet decomposition spillover results further suggest that BTC's hedging capacity against different economic and political uncertainties may be limited during certain extreme events.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Houjian & Luo, Fangyuan & Guo, Lili, 2024. "Harbor in the storm: How Bitcoin navigates challenges of climate change and global uncertainties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s105905602400666x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103674
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