IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v89y2024ipap1303-1313.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of retail investor sentiment on the conditional volatility of stocks and bonds: Evidence from the Tel-Aviv stock exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Hadad, Elroi
  • Kedar-Levy, Haim

Abstract

We measured bond and stock conditional return volatility as a function of changes in sentiment, proxied by six indicators of the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange. We found that changes in sentiment affect conditional volatilities at different magnitudes and often in an opposite manner in the two markets, subject to market states. We are the first to measure the bond conditional return volatility of retail investor sentiment, thanks to a unique dataset from a limit-order book with highly active retail traders. This market structure differs from the prevalent over-the-counter platforms, where institutional investors are active, yet less prone to sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hadad, Elroi & Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2024. "The impact of retail investor sentiment on the conditional volatility of stocks and bonds: Evidence from the Tel-Aviv stock exchange," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1303-1313.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:89:y:2024:i:pa:p:1303-1313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056023003489
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2023.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2014. "The long of it: Odds that investor sentiment spuriously predicts anomaly returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 613-619.
    3. Utku Uygur & Oktay Tas, 2014. "The impacts of investor sentiment on different economic sectors: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 14(4), pages 236-241, December.
    4. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 471-493, September.
    5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    6. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    8. Thierry Foucault & David Sraer & David J. Thesmar, 2011. "Individual Investors and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1369-1406, August.
    9. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    10. Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015. "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 791-837.
    11. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    12. Kiryoung Lee & Minki Kim, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 915-933, March.
    13. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M.Ángeles & Caby, Jérôme & Šević, Aleksandar, 2021. "The influence of investor sentiment on the green bond market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Spyros Spyrou, 2013. "Investor sentiment and yield spread determinants: evidence from European markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(6), pages 739-762, October.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    16. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    17. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    18. Gitit Gur Gershgoren & Elroi Hadad & Haim Kedar-Levy, 2020. "A Deep Market In Israeli Corporate Bonds: Macro And Microeconomic Analysis In Light Of The Accounting Standards," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 18(1), pages 139-176.
    19. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1125-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    22. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    23. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Angelini, Eliana, 2021. "Feverish sentiment and global equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1088-1108.
    24. Hong, Yongmiao & Lin, Hai & Wu, Chunchi, 2012. "Are corporate bond market returns predictable?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2216-2232.
    25. Juan Piñeiro-Chousa & M.Ángeles López-Cabarcos & Jérôme Caby & Aleksandar Šević, 2021. "The influence of investor sentiment on the green bond market," Post-Print hal-02960892, HAL.
    26. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2007. "Noise trading and stock market volatility," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-243, July.
    27. Dima Alberg & Haim Shalit & Rami Yosef, 2008. "Estimating stock market volatility using asymmetric GARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1201-1208.
    28. Hauser, Shmuel & Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2018. "Liquidity might come at cost: The role of heterogeneous preferences," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-23.
    29. Haim Kedar-Levy, 2013. "A Rational Foundation for Trend-Chasing and Contrarian Trades with Implications for Momentum Anomalies," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-21.
    30. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    31. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2006. "Can baby-boomers' retirement increase stock prices?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 284-299, May.
    32. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    33. Friewald, Nils & Jankowitsch, Rainer & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2012. "Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-36.
    34. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    35. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2017. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 112-132.
    36. Downing, Chris & Underwood, Shane & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "The Relative Informational Efficiency of Stocks and Bonds: An Intraday Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(5), pages 1081-1102, October.
    37. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    38. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    39. Yakov Amihud & Haim Mendelson, 2006. "Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(1), pages 19-32, April.
    40. Subhankar Nayak, 2010. "Investor Sentiment and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 59-80, September.
    41. Amy K. Edwards & Lawrence E. Harris & Michael S. Piwowar, 2007. "Corporate Bond Market Transaction Costs and Transparency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1421-1451, June.
    42. Niklas Karlsson & George Loewenstein & Duane Seppi, 2009. "The ostrich effect: Selective attention to information," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 95-115, April.
    43. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elroi Hadad & Haim Kedar-Levy, 2022. "The Impact of Retail Investors Sentiment on Conditional Volatility of Stocks and Bonds," Papers 2208.01538, arXiv.org.
    2. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Kumari, Jyoti, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock market liquidity: Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 166-180.
    4. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    5. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    7. Zhen Peng & Changsheng Hu, 2020. "Leveraged Trading, Irrational Sentiment and Sustainability in the Stock Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    9. Utku Uygur & Oktay Taş, 2014. "The impacts of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility of international stock markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1165-1179, May.
    10. Zhang, Hang & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Tsai, Pin-Chieh, 2023. "Overnight returns and investor sentiment: Further evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Yang Gao & Chengjie Zhao & Bianxia Sun & Wandi Zhao, 2022. "Effects of investor sentiment on stock volatility: new evidences from multi-source data in China’s green stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    12. Sayim, Mustafa & Rahman, Hamid, 2015. "An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    13. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    15. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    16. Sofiane Aboura, 2016. "Individual investors and stock returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(7), pages 477-485, December.
    17. Muhammad Zia Ur Rehman & Zain ul Abidin & Faisal Rizwan & Zaheer Abbas & Sajjad Ahmad Baig, 2017. "How investor sentiments spillover from developed countries to developing countries?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1309096-130, January.
    18. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Nizar Raissi & Sahbi Missaoui, 2015. "Role of investor sentiment in financial markets: an explanation by behavioural finance approach," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 362-401.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sentiment; Bond market; Stock market; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:89:y:2024:i:pa:p:1303-1313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.