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Momentum or contrarian trading strategy: Which one works better in the Chinese stock market

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  • Yu, Lin
  • Fung, Hung-Gay
  • Leung, Wai Kin

Abstract

This study investigates short-horizon momentum-reversal patterns in Chinese stock markets since 2010, when investors were first permitted to engage in short sales of stocks. We use weekly returns of winner-minus-loser portfolios for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE), and the SZSE Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) to examine the profitability of the trading strategy. Weekly stock return reversals are observed and significant across the three markets, while returns appear to increase if the sorting period is extended or the holding period is shortened. The return-reversal effect in the GEM is the strongest but also disappears most quickly. A momentum pattern of winner-minus-loser portfolios for low-turnover-ratio firms is also observed across the three Chinese markets and the return-reversal pattern is prevalent for high-turnover-ratio firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Lin & Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai Kin, 2019. "Momentum or contrarian trading strategy: Which one works better in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 87-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:87-105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2019.03.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ni, Xiaoran & Xu, Hongmei, 2023. "Are short selling threats beneficial to creditors? Insights from corporate default risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Lulin Zhou & Maxwell O. Antwi & Henry A. Antwi & Ama Boafo‐Arthur & Tehzeeb Mustafa, 2020. "Endangering China's environmental health security goals through negative environmental investor behaviours," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 1398-1411, November.
    3. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Be greedy when others are fearful: Evidence from a two-decade assessment of the NDX 100 and S&P 500 indexes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Neszveda, Gábor & Till, Gábor & Timár, Barnabás & Varga, Marcell, 2022. "Is short-term reversal driven by liquidity provision in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Iwao Maeda & David deGraw & Michiharu Kitano & Hiroyasu Matsushima & Kiyoshi Izumi & Hiroki Sakaji & Atsuo Kato, 2020. "Latent Segmentation of Stock Trading Strategies Using Multi-Modal Imitation Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, October.
    6. Xiong, Haifang & Yang, Gaofei & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Factor portfolio and target volatility management: An analysis of portfolio performance in the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 493-517.
    7. Lin, Hung-Wen & Huang, Jing-Bo & Lin, Kun-Ben & Zhang, Joyce & Chen, Shu-Heng, 2020. "Which is the better fourth factor in China? Reversal or turnover?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Wen, Fenghua & Zou, Qian & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "The contrarian strategy of institutional investors in Chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    9. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin & Mohd Edil Abd. Sukor, 2020. "Long-Term, Short-Term and Time-Varying Profitability of Reversals: The Role of Market State and Volatility," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 501-520.
    10. Zhang, Zhehao & Xing, Ruina & Liu, Jiajun & Shao, Yifei, 2023. "Correlation-based investment strategies: A comparison between Chinese and US stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Zhou, Minna & Liu, Yongjun, 2024. "Dynamic consumption and portfolio choice considering information learning and stochastic interest rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor & Mohamed Albaity & Izlin Ismail, 2021. "Financial liberalization and the behavior of reversals in emerging market economies," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1565-1582, January.
    13. Tan, Xue & Yu, Lin & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2022. "Firms with short-termism: Evidence from expatriate controlling shareholders," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Koziol, Christian & Proelss, Juliane, 2021. "An explanation for momentum with a rational model under symmetric information – Evidence from cross country equity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Ramzi Boussaidi & Majed Ibrahim AlSaggaf, 2024. "Post-Earnings Announcement Drift, Momentum, and Contrarian Strategies in the Saudi Stock Market: Risk Explanation vs. Behavioral Explanation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 13622-13653, September.
    16. Min-Yuh Day & Yensen Ni & Chinning Hsu & Paoyu Huang, 2022. "Do Investment Strategies Matter for Trading Global Clean Energy and Global Energy ETFs?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Tahar Tayachi & Rashid Mehmood & Sidra Malik & Zoya Malik, 2020. "Impact of Credit Risk on Momentum and Contrarian Strategies: Evidence from South Asian Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    18. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    19. Zijia Du & Alan Guoming Huang & Russ Wermers & Wenfeng Wu, 2022. "Language and Domain Specificity: A Chinese Financial Sentiment Dictionary [The effects of analyst-country institutions on biased research: Evidence from target prices]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 673-719.
    20. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Mohd Edil Abd. Sukor & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin, 2022. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Time-varying Contrarian Effect: Evidence From Emerging Stock Markets of South Asia," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    21. Rong, Yuen & Tian, Cunzhi & Li, Lifang & Zheng, Xinwei, 2020. "Does asset redeployability affect corporate investment and equity value?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 479-492.
    22. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "The profitability of seasonal trading timing: Insights from energy-related markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    23. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Cao, Jiawei, 2024. "Seemingly manipulated anomaly: Evidence from corporate site visits," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese stock market; Individual investors; Momentum and reversal patterns; G11; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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