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Oil shocks, stock market prices, and the U.S. dividend yield decomposition

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  • Chortareas, Georgios
  • Noikokyris, Emmanouil

Abstract

We estimate the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on the U.S. dividend yield components (dividend growth, real interest rate, subjective equity premium and mispricing), as they emerge from a decomposition based on the Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004a) framework. A positive relationship between oil price increases and dividend yield emerges, the persistence of which depends on the news driving oil price increases. The linkages between oil price shocks and dividend yield's components show that a confluence of factors determines the ultimate impact of oil price increases on stock market valuations, revealing information about the oil price pass-through mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Oil shocks, stock market prices, and the U.S. dividend yield decomposition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 639-649.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:639-649
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2013.06.001
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    8. Libo Yin, 2022. "The role of intermediary capital risk in predicting oil volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 401-416, January.
    9. Naser, Hanan, 2018. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Oil-Dependent Economy: The case of Bahrain," MPRA Paper 89743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Sep 2018.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Stock market prices; Structural VAR; Dividend yield decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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