IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v92y2018icp343-352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar irradiation nowcasting by stochastic persistence: A new parsimonious, simple and efficient forecasting tool

Author

Listed:
  • Voyant, Cyril
  • Notton, Gilles

Abstract

Simple, naïve, smart or clearness persistences are tools largely used as naïve predictors for the global solar irradiation forecasting. It is essential to compare the performances of sophisticated prediction approaches with that of a reference approach generally a naïve methods. In this paper, a new kind of naïve “nowcaster” is developed, a persistence model based on the stochastic aspect of measured solar energy signal denoted stochastic persistence and constructed without needing a large collection of historical data. Two versions are proposed: one based on an additive and one on a multiplicative scheme; a theoretical description and an experimental validation based on measurements realized in Ajaccio (France) and Tilos (Greece) are exposed. The results show that this approach is efficient, easy to implement and does not need historical data as the machine learning methods usually employed. This new solar irradiation predictor could become an interesting tool and become a new member of the solar forecasting family.

Suggested Citation

  • Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles, 2018. "Solar irradiation nowcasting by stochastic persistence: A new parsimonious, simple and efficient forecasting tool," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 343-352.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:343-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032118303344
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marchesoni-Acland, Franco & Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo, 2020. "Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1140-1154.
    2. Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Wenqi & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    3. Lopes, Francis M. & Conceição, Ricardo & Fasquelle, Thomas & Silva, Hugo G. & Salgado, Rui & Canhoto, Paulo & Collares-Pereira, Manuel, 2020. "Predicted direct solar radiation (ECMWF) for optimized operational strategies of linear focus parabolic-trough systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 378-391.
    4. Francis M. Lopes & Ricardo Conceição & Hugo G. Silva & Thomas Fasquelle & Rui Salgado & Paulo Canhoto & Manuel Collares-Pereira, 2019. "Short-Term Forecasts of DNI from an Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF) for Optimized Operational Strategies of a Central Receiver System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:343-352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.