Decarbonization pathways and layout evolution in China's steel sector

Decarbonizing the iron and steel sector is critical to meeting global climate targets. The downscaling of the decarbonization pathway should be explored when allocating responsibilities and applying low-carbon technologies. Meanwhile, assessing emissions reduction potential and cost accurately must be based on the complex spatiotemporal industrial layout evolution driven by technical transformation and demand trends. This study, therefore, conducted an optimization modeling approach to analyze the decarbonization pathway of the iron and steel industry, considering industrial layout evolution. An integrated model that combined top-down demand forecast, bottom-up technology selection, and inter-provincial transport was developed with the provincial resolution. China is taken as a case study under its long-term climate target. The results indicated that fossil-based routes with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based direct reduction iron (H2-DRI) routes each could contribute 27 %–28 % of total steel production by 2060. Around 12 % of national steel production could be transferred from North and Northeast China to East, Southwest, and South China by 2060, which increases the provincial-level steel self-sufficiency rate from 71 % to 82 %. Achieving deep emissions reduction in each region requires the complementarity of secondary routes and primary routes with breakthrough technologies but acknowledges the unique technology mix and production trends. 59 % of CO2 sequestration could be concentrated in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi, while H2-DRI can be widespread in northern and coastal areas.