Impact of electric vehicle disordered charging on urban electricity consumption

Accurate analysis of the influence of large-scale disordered charging behaviors of electric vehicles (EVs) on urban electricity consumption holds considerable importance for the security and stable operation of the power system. However, for the traditional analysis method, the influence of social emergencies like extreme weather and epidemics is often overlooked. It may be inadequate in a carbon-neutral scenario, where the interrelation between EV user behaviors and social factors is complex. Moreover, most traditional methods only consider EV penetration rates, which also causes obstacles in analyzing the changes in electricity consumption from distinct vehicle-to-pile ratios and various urban functional areas. Thus, an analysis method for the disordered charging behaviors of EVs considering social emergencies is proposed in this work. First, a multi-group social information propagation model is established to simulate the disordered charging behaviors during emergencies; Based on the functional observability theory, an analysis model for the disordered charging behaviors is also developed. Afterwards, an electricity consumption equation is constructed to reveal the quantitative relationship between disordered charging users and changes in electricity consumption. Finally, the effect of disordered charging behaviors on electricity consumption across various urban functional areas is analyzed for varying EV penetration rates and three types of vehicle-to-pile ratios. The case study illustrates that a significant difference in the influence of disordered charging behaviors on urban electricity consumption under 4:1 to 1:1 vehicle-to-pile ratio scenarios occurs only when the EV penetration rate is higher than 40 %.