Energy cable ampacity: Impact of seasonal and climate-related changes

Climate change is influencing traditionally stable factors such as meteorological characteristics and soil conditions, impacting the planning process of electrical energy grids, especially energy cables. Supported by real-life data from the metropolitan region of Hamburg, this study examines the sensitivity of electric energy cables to seasonal and climate related changes, aiming to address inevitable future climate impacts. Using the thermal impedance model by the International Electrotechnical Commission, combined with 32 years of local soil and weather data, permissible current levels were calculated for a specific cable configuration. Comparisons with static boundaries reveal that shifts in environmental conditions can undermine the planning process, affecting maximum current limits and casting doubt on the current method’s validity. Analysis shows that seasonal transitions significantly alter soil parameters within each annual cycle, causing up to a 10 % variation in energy transfer potential, depending on soil, cable, and regional specifics. Static standards also overestimate ampacity by up to 12 % for the studied region and timeframe. Climate change leads to shifting soil and weather conditions, causing unused energy transfer capacities, overestimations, and potential structural damage. As climate effects intensify, both seasonal and historical shifts are expected to have greater impacts, highlighting the limitations of the current static planning model without additional monitoring systems. As limited transmission capacities increasingly demand costly congestion management and equipment redundancies diminish, the need to optimize current resources and plan for a changing future becomes even more critical.