On the path towards carbon neutrality? A comprehensive analysis of local climate plans in France

Validating current climate planning practices is crucial to ensure alignment with international commitments. While Local Climate Plans (LCPs) are widely adopted, their effectiveness still needs to be examined. This study fills this gap by proposing a comprehensive method using ex-ante and ex-post evaluations, and assessing plans’ quality. A case study is conducted for France analyzing (i) 56 sectoral plans and their interaction with LCPs, (ii) 477 LCPs focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and 19,191 climate actions, and (iii) Paris-Saclay LCP and related planning documents. Results reveal significant inconsistencies between LCPs and other plans. Significant disparities in GHG reduction targets exist, with an average of 6.1 sectors covered by 2030, dropping to 2.9 by 2050. Findings indicate that current LCPs are unlikely to meet climate targets. While the meta-analysis shows no significant disparity between adaptation (23 %) and mitigation (29 %) actions, an unbalanced distribution of climate actions across sectors is observed. For mitigation actions, agriculture is the most covered sector (29 % of actions), followed by waste (18 %) and road transport (14 %). In contrast, energy industry-related actions are the least adopted (4 %). The Paris-Saclay case study highlights critical planning gaps, particularly in defining strategies and actions (only 3.2 % are adaptation actions). Ex-post evaluation of actions is limited, with only 28 indicators monitored for 126 actions. Seven pivotal factors influencing LCP effectiveness are identified: political, legal, organizational, methodological, stakeholder involvement, economic, and technological. Standardized LCP guidelines and robust ex-post evaluation methods are needed to enhance LCPs contributions to carbon neutrality.