A multi-sector, multi-node, and multi-scenario energy system analysis for the Caribbean with focus on the role of offshore floating photovoltaics

Energy solutions are rapidly needed to mitigate the problems of climate change and the high dependence on expensive imported petroleum products, which have continued to dampen Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This research comprehensively analyses and compares energy pathways with scenarios that contextualise the eventualities and intricacies of carbon-intensive and carbon-neutral pathway options for the Caribbean using a proven techno-economic modelling tool, the LUT Energy System Transition Model. Due to the Caribbean's geographic limitation, offshore renewable technology's role is researched in a fully integrated energy system. The results show a solar energy momentum driven by excellent resource conditions and fast-improving economic attractiveness. The electricity generation mix is led by solar photovoltaics (67–90%) and wind power (6–30%), complemented by hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal energy. Offshore floating solar photovoltaics could supply reliable and stable energy, thus fostering a sustainable blue economy. The Caribbean's future energy system is best characterised as a Solar-to-X Economy. Storage, sector coupling, and power-to-heat, carbon dioxide, water, fuels, and mobility solutions provide flexibility in the renewable pathways. Notably, renewable electricity and green e-hydrogen are the main precursors in Power-to-X processes. The adoption of electric vehicles spurs a cost-competitive transition in the road transport segment, and the vehicle-to-grid strategy provides additional flexibility in the system. The renewables pathways are 7–10% lower in costs than alternatives and could create new industry opportunities, jobs, and investments. This research advances the international perspective on sustainable energy transition for land-limited archipelago regions.