Techno-economic analysis and uncertainty assessment of green hydrogen production in future exporting countries

The uncoordinated development of a green hydrogen economy could potentially have far-reaching geopolitical implications. The differential access to resources and technologies will affect the import-export relations between countries. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of large-scale green hydrogen production systems in countries that may emerge as major clean hydrogen producers and exporters (Australia, Chile, Morocco, and Colombia). Additionally, it investigates the impact of different uncertainties on their levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) and provides a comparative analysis of local wind and solar resources. The uncertainties encompass factors influencing the LCOH, including electricity and water prices, capital, operational, and replacement costs, utilization rates, efficiency ratios, and system lifetime. A Monte Carlo simulation was developed and employed for the techno-economic assessment of large-scale hydrogen production systems in seventy-six spatially distributed sites. The results indicate that Chile has the potential to produce green hydrogen at the lowest cost ($2.8–4.5/kg in 2030). The LCOH in Morocco may range from $3.2 to $3.5/kg, Australia from $3.2 to $3.6/kg, and Colombia from $4.1 to $4.9/kg by 2030. The simulations indicate that the LCOH is most sensitive to changes in specific investment costs and the utilization rates of electrolyzers, regardless of the country and scenario examined.