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A systems modeling approach to estimate biogas potential from biomass sources in Brazil

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  • Borges, Cosme P.
  • Sobczak, Jéssica C.
  • Silberg, Timothy R.
  • Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio
  • Vaz, Caroline R.

Abstract

In recent years, concerns have grown about increased demand for energy and waste accumulation in Brazil. Technologies that digest waste and capture biogas in the process have been presented as an avenue to address these two issues. Brazil’s biogas potential has been studied extensively, however, less investigation has estimated production across time. A system dynamics model (SDM) was developed to estimate biogas yield over a 30-year period from municipal waste, feedstock, vinasse and waste water routes. The SDM was parameterized using open databases and literature, with a focus on technology diffusion. The analysis indicates production may reach 5.3 million cubic meters/day of methane by 2030 to 19.7 million in 2050. Exchange of information (via word of mouth) exponentially increased technology adoption rates, suggesting that production can be supported by disseminating information that promotes the environmental and economic benefits of transforming biomass into energy. Slow growth was attributed to an absence of policies that incentivized production and its research and development programs. These two hurdles presented challenges for adopters to overcome high upfront costs. Future efforts should focus on the solid waste and feedstock routes given that they assumed the largest production and fast growing population of adopters, respectively. Radical and integrated policies are required to reach substantial biogas yields from four routes to address environmental and energy concerns for Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Borges, Cosme P. & Sobczak, Jéssica C. & Silberg, Timothy R. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Vaz, Caroline R., 2021. "A systems modeling approach to estimate biogas potential from biomass sources in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:138:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120308030
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110518
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    1. Borges, Cosme P. & Silberg, Timothy R. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Vaz, Caroline R., 2023. "Scaling actors’ perspectives about innovation system functions: Diffusion of biogas in Brazil," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Ahmad, Munir & Khan, Irfan & Shahzad Khan, Muhammad Qaiser & Jabeen, Gul & Jabeen, Hafiza Samra & Işık, Cem, 2023. "Households' perception-based factors influencing biogas adoption: Innovation diffusion framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
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    5. Tjutju, N.A.S. & Ammenberg, J. & Lindfors, A., 2024. "Biogas potential studies: A review of their scope, approach, and relevance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    6. Zhao Xin-gang & Wang Wei & Hu Shuran & Liu Xuan, 2023. "Impacts of Government Policies on the Adoption of Biomass Power: A System Dynamic Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-11, January.
    7. Santiago Molina & Ricardo Novella & Josep Gomez-Soriano & Miguel Olcina-Girona, 2021. "New Combustion Modelling Approach for Methane-Hydrogen Fueled Engines Using Machine Learning and Engine Virtualization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Ahmad, Munir & Wu, Yiyun, 2022. "Household-based factors affecting uptake of biogas plants in Bangladesh: Implications for sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 858-867.
    9. Júlio Ximenes & André Siqueira & Ewa Kochańska & Rafał M. Łukasik, 2021. "Valorisation of Agri- and Aquaculture Residues via Biogas Production for Enhanced Industrial Application," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.

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