Multi-criteria analysis for energy planning in Ecuador: Enhancing decision-making through comprehensive evaluation

The growing demand for electricity and the need to mitigate climate change drive the development of renewable energy projects. In some cases, their implementation has led to socio-environmental conflicts. The planning of power plants generally prioritizes technical and economic criteria, while socio-environmental aspects and the involvement of local stakeholders remain limited. In Ecuador, the construction of hydroelectric plants has increased generation capacity but has also triggered conflicts in nearby areas. This study aimed to integrate diverse criteria and stakeholders into Ecuador’s energy infrastructure planning process. A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was conducted on a portfolio of 101 renewable energy projects planned for the coming years, including 91 hydroelectric, 2 solar photovoltaic, 3 wind, and 5 geothermal projects, with a total capacity of 12,532.45 MW. Nine criteria were analyzed and organized into social, environmental, and technical categories. Social criteria included project perception, job creation, and relocation; environmental criteria covered deforestation, risks to wildlife, and proximity to natural reserves; and technical criteria included plant size, accessibility, and distance to transmission lines. The analysis involved four stakeholder groups—academia, public sector, private sector, and civil society—who expressed their preferences across criteria to ultimately rank the projects from best to worst using the PROMETHEE method. Results showed that energy project planning prioritizes social and environmental criteria over technical ones. Thus, 55 projects (49 hydroelectric, one geothermal, two solar photovoltaic, and three wind) were selected for future construction. In comparison, 42 hydroelectric and four geothermal projects were excluded due to potential impacts on wildlife and forests near protected areas. The methodology suggests that decision-makers should incorporate a multidisciplinary, inclusive, and participatory approach when planning energy infrastructure to ensure it is environmentally sustainable and socially acceptable.