Deploying renewable energy sources and energy storage systems for achieving low-carbon emissions targets in hydro-dominated power systems: A case study of Ecuador

Low-carbon electricity systems have become a key objective for governments and power sector stakeholders worldwide regarding the energy transition. In this sense, renewable energy sources (RESs) and energy storage systems (ESSs) are important in the transition to low-carbon electricity generation, as they contribute to reducing carbon emissions. However, deploying these technologies faces techno-economic challenges, particularly in hydro-dominated systems like Ecuador. This paper presents a multi-year expansion planning model to simultaneously optimize the RESs and ESSs portfolios to fulfill Ecuador’s low-carbon emission targets. It also comprehensively describes the current status and future scenarios of RESs deployment in Ecuador towards low-carbon development. The model was applied to the Ecuadorian power system (EPS) considering the generation planning process projected from 2023 to 2031 according to the Electricity Master Plan, two conditions of hydropower availability, and three planning scenarios. The results showed that to meet Ecuador’s carbon emission targets, there is a progressive increase in the installation of low-carbon electricity capacity each year, especially RESs and ESSs, reaching investments by 2031 of 908 MW for PV, 605 MW for wind, and 763 for ESSs. Thus, this work highlights the importance of considering both RESs and ESSs for achieving low-carbon emission targets in the EPS.