Advanced solar energy potential assessment in Malawi: Utilizing high-resolution WRF model and GIS to identify optimal sites for solar PV generation

Solar PV technology offers a promising electricity alternative in developing countries like Malawi, which face limited electricity access and increased vulnerability to climate change. This study assesses solar resources using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's high-resolution capabilities. A two-year simulation helped compute solar PV's technical potential, focusing on annual energy generation, capacity factor, and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) variation. GIS and expert-based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) identified optimal solar PV sites, considering eight key constraints. Findings show an annual average daily peak GHI of 1106.45 W/m2 and a daily energy inflow of 6.76 kWh/m2/day, with a peak in October and a diffuse fraction of 10.61 %, indicating clear skies ideal for solar PV. The average annual energy yield is about 14.11 TWh with a 21.48 % capacity factor. Notably, the most suitable lands for solar PV, covering 10,288.2 km2 or 15.6 % of acceptable land, are predominantly in the southern region. Thus, these solar PV potentials offer the possibility to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, placing Malawi in agreement with worldwide sustainability goals. Generally, this research lays a crucial foundation for Malawi's renewable energy strategies, highlighting the opportunity for improved electrification and more effective climate change mitigation endeavors.