Neural network survivability approach of a wave energy converter considering uncertainties in the prediction of future knowledge

To tune the wave energy converter (WEC) controller parameters such as damping to reduce the line force during extreme wave conditions, future knowledge of the line force is required. To achieve this, the incoming wave and system state should be predicted for a few seconds in the future. It is rather an arduous task to predict the future knowledge of waves and the system’s dynamic when dealing with breaking and steep waves, and the system is subject to various nonlinear forces. The classical model-based control strategies often rely on linear assumptions to estimate the WEC dynamics for the sake of simplicity. Unlike the model-based, the data-driven approaches are free from modeling errors and the algorithms are trained over the true and noisy data to predict non-linear system behaviors. Using data-driven approaches, we are able to model nonlinear dynamics. However, new questions emerge on the accuracy of the future wave and system state predictions, and how this uncertainty propagates into the final prediction of the line force. As incorrect damping may lead to excessive line force and detrimental damage to the system, these are the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed. The main purpose of this paper is to answer these questions through a survivability strategy for wave energy converters by providing a realistic perspective on the implementation of the neural network approaches by accounting for the errors in the input data. For this purpose, a series of neural networks is designed that first predicts the surface elevation for 0.36 s ahead, i.e. corresponding to 2 s in the full-scale WEC. This future knowledge of the wave elevation is then used to predict the system state (i.e. power take-off (PTO) translator position) for the same prediction horizon based on the PTO damping. This information is then fed to a convolutional neural network (CNN) that predicts the peak line force 0.36 s ahead. This paper also evaluates the predictive capabilities of neural network (NN) models, comparing them to classical autoregressive (AR) and Kalman filter methods. While the AR model exhibits slightly higher accuracy in fixed PTO system configurations, it falters in providing real-time predictions when system parameters undergo variations. In contrast, the NN prediction model excels by establishing a robust relationship between system configuration and output signals. Especially noteworthy is its ability to outperform classical methods with minimal training on a selective set of system configurations. Then, the sensitivity of the peak line force prediction to the uncertainties in the input data from NN models and the prediction horizon is analyzed. The neural network models are trained over the experimental data subjected to extreme sea states for a point absorber wave energy converter. The results suggest that the accuracy of the surface elevation prediction has an insignificant direct effect on the peak force prediction model. However, these uncertainties are reflected in the PTO translator position prediction, and the model is considerably sensitive to the accuracy of this prediction. This sensitivity nonetheless is less notable for higher PTO damping values.