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Simple hourly global solar radiation prediction models

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  • Audi, M.S.
  • Alsaad, M.A.

Abstract

Three simple prediction models of hourly global radiation, namely, a normal distribution model (ND), a half-sine wave model (HW), and a polynomial model (PO), are tested using data for a period of five years of the area of Amman, Jordan. The results show that none of these models alone can adequately represent the tested data. Specifically, the results show that PO model represents the data in about 42% of the hours of the year, the ND model about 32%, and the HW model about 34%. Thus a new model which is a combination of the three simple models developed to provide a comprehensive representation of the tested data. This model is given as follows: rg = Φp(i, h) [a0+a1h+a2h2+a3h3+a4h4]+Φs(i,h) b0 +b1sinπh15 + π2 + Φn(i, h) 1σ2πexp−h22σ2 where h is the hour of the day, i the month of the year, and Φp, Φs, and Φn have 0, 0.5 or 1 values depending on i and h. It is found that this model represents the data in about 74% of the time.

Suggested Citation

  • Audi, M.S. & Alsaad, M.A., 1991. "Simple hourly global solar radiation prediction models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 473-478.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:1:y:1991:i:3:p:473-478
    DOI: 10.1016/0960-1481(91)90060-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Zhang & Zhuoqun Wei, 2019. "A Hybrid Model Based on Principal Component Analysis, Wavelet Transform, and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm for Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Hrayshat, Eyad S. & Al-Soud, Mohammed S., 2004. "Solar energy in Jordan: current state and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-200, April.

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