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Analysis of the crash of TK 1951 using CATS

Author

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  • Ale, B.J.M.
  • Bellamy, L.J.
  • Cooper, J.
  • Ababei, D.
  • Kurowicka, D.
  • Morales, O.
  • Spouge, J.

Abstract

On February 25, 2009, flight TK 1951, a Boeing 737-800 operated by Turkish Airlines, crashed approximately 1.5km before the intended runway at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport. On board were 135 people—128 passengers and 7 crew. Of these 9 were killed and 86 were injured. The aircraft was destroyed. The official inquiry into the cause of the accident is being conducted by the Dutch Safety Board (Onderzoeksraad Voor Veiligheid, OvV). Prior to the accident the Netherlands Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management had already embarked on a project to model the accident genesis of air transport accidents with the aim of quantifying the risks of air traffic and supporting the development of further measures and methods to reduce these risks. In this paper information regarding the accident is confronted with an analysis using the Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS). This enables drawing of some more theoretical conclusions about the accident and about the validity of CATS.

Suggested Citation

  • Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & Cooper, J. & Ababei, D. & Kurowicka, D. & Morales, O. & Spouge, J., 2010. "Analysis of the crash of TK 1951 using CATS," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 469-477.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:5:p:469-477
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.014
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    2. Kolechko D., 2009. "Risks in models extraoffice banking," Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics. Вісник Киiвського нацiонального унiверситету iм. Тараса Шевченка. Серiя: Економiка, CyberLeninka;Издательско-полиграфический центр «Киевский университет», issue 116, pages 38-41.
    3. Pikus R. V. & Lobova O. M., 2009. "The insurance of ecological risks in Ukraine," Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics. Вісник Киiвського нацiонального унiверситету iм. Тараса Шевченка. Серiя: Економiка, CyberLeninka;Издательско-полиграфический центр «Киевский университет», issue 113-114, pages 27-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2021. "Bayesian network modeling of accident investigation reports for aviation safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Hanea, Anca & Morales Napoles, Oswaldo & Ababei, Dan, 2015. "Non-parametric Bayesian networks: Improving theory and reviewing applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 265-284.
    3. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    4. Ferjencik, Milos, 2014. "IPICA_Lite—Improvements to root cause analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Dorota Kurowicka, 2012. "Conditionalization of Copula-Based Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 219-230, September.
    6. Pacheco, Ricardo Rodrigues & Fernandes, Elton & Domingos, Eduardo Marques, 2014. "Airport airside safety index," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 86-92.
    7. Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2012. "Analysis of the Schiphol Cell Complex fire using a Bayesian belief net based model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 115-124.

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