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Uncertainty assessment of the road safety index

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  • Hermans, Elke
  • Van den Bossche, Filip
  • Wets, Geert

Abstract

Composite indicators aggregate domain-specific information in one index, on the basis of which countries can be assigned a relative ranking. Recently, the road safety community got convinced of the policy supporting role of indicators in terms of benchmarking, target setting and selection of measures. However, combining the information of a set of relevant risk indicators in one index presenting the whole picture turns out to be very challenging. In particular, the rank of a country can be largely influenced by the methodological choices made during the composite indicator building process. Decisions concerning the selection of indicators, the normalisation of the indicator values, the weighting of indicators and the way of aggregating can influence the final ranking. In this research, it is shown that the road safety ranking of countries differs significantly according to the selected weighting method, the expert choice and the set of indicators. From these three input factors, the selection of the set of indicators is most influential. A well considered selection of indicators will therefore establish the largest reduction in ranking uncertainty. With a set of appropriate indicators, the proposed framework reveals the major sources of uncertainty in the creation of a composite road safety indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermans, Elke & Van den Bossche, Filip & Wets, Geert, 2009. "Uncertainty assessment of the road safety index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(7), pages 1220-1228.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:7:p:1220-1228
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sadeghi, Aliasghar & Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam, Abolfazl, 2016. "Uncertainty-based prioritization of road safety projects: An application of data envelopment analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 28-36.
    2. Huang, Wencheng & Zhang, Yue & Yin, Dezhi & Zuo, Borui & Liu, Zhanru, 2021. "Urban bus accident analysis: based on a Tropos Goal Risk-Accident Framework considering Learning From Incidents process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Li, Yaxin & Ding, Yuxin & Guo, Yuliang & Cui, Haizhou & Gao, Haiyi & Zhou, Ziyu & (Aaron) Zhang, Nanbo & Zhu, Siyao & Chen, Faan, 2023. "An integrated decision model with reliability to support transport safety system analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    4. Elliott, Michael A., 2010. "Selecting numerical scales for pairwise comparisons," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 750-763.
    5. Riccardo Borgoni & Andrea Gilardi & Diego Zappa, 2021. "Assessing the Risk of Car Crashes in Road Networks," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 429-447, August.

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