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Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making

Author

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  • Maes, Marc A.
  • Faber, Michael H.

Abstract

A rational decision-making process does not exclude the possibility of decision makers expressing different preferences and disagreeing regarding the effects of consequences and optimal course of actions. This point of view is explored in depth in this paper. A framework is developed that includes several decision makers (instead of just one) and allows for the variability of preferences among these decision makers. The information provided by the varying opinions of decision makers can be used to optimize our own decision-making. To achieve this, likelihood functions are developed for stated preferences among both discrete and continuous alternatives, and stated preference rankings of alternatives. Two applications are pursued: the optimization of the lifecycle utility of a structural system subject to consequences of failure proportional to the intensity of hazards exceeding a variable threshold, and to follow-up consequences. Also, the problem of tight decisions or close calls is investigated in order to explore the efficiency of a Bayesian approach using stated preferences and stated rankings.

Suggested Citation

  • Maes, Marc A. & Faber, Michael H., 2006. "Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(5), pages 556-569.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:91:y:2006:i:5:p:556-569
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2005.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Teferra, Kirubel & Shields, Michael D. & Hapij, Adam & Daddazio, Raymond P., 2014. "Mapping model validation metrics to subject matter expert scores for model adequacy assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 9-19.
    2. Sýkora, Miroslav & Marková, Jana & Diamantidis, Dimitris, 2018. "Bayesian network application for the risk assessment of existing energy production units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 312-320.

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