IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v238y2023ics0951832023003459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A methodology to evaluate gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline network considering the effects of natural gas resources

Author

Listed:
  • Shan, Xiangying
  • Yu, Weichao
  • Gong, Jing
  • Huang, Weihe
  • Wen, Kai
  • Wang, Hao
  • Ren, Shipeng
  • Wang, Di
  • Shi, Yongheng
  • Liu, Chunyue

Abstract

In this study, a methodology to evaluate gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network is proposed, and the uncertainty of the gas supply capacity of the natural gas resources is considered. The methodology is composed of four parts. Firstly, the gas supply capacity calculation model of natural gas resources considering its stochastic and time-dependent characteristics is described. Secondly, the gas demand prediction model is developed based on the demand-side analysis. Thirdly, the gas supply calculation model of natural gas pipeline network is proposed considering units failure and hydraulic characteristics. Finally, according to the established gas supply reliability index system, the gas supply reliability indicators are calculated based on N (N is a large number) times of Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, a real natural gas pipeline network located in China is applied to confirm the feasibility of the methodology, and the gas supply reliability is evaluated based on quantity and time dimensions, and the results are reduced by about 3.9% and 4.1% compared with the results calculated by the method which ignored the uncertainty of resources. At last, the significance of the natural gas resources in the gas supply reliability is investigated by the sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Shan, Xiangying & Yu, Weichao & Gong, Jing & Huang, Weihe & Wen, Kai & Wang, Hao & Ren, Shipeng & Wang, Di & Shi, Yongheng & Liu, Chunyue, 2023. "A methodology to evaluate gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline network considering the effects of natural gas resources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:238:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023003459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023003459
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109431?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Jun & Zhu, Jiaxing & Liang, Guangchuan & Ma, Junjie & He, Jiayi & Du, Penghua & Ye, Zhanpeng, 2024. "Three-layer and robust planning models to evaluate the strategies of defense layer, attack layer, and operation layer for optimal protection in natural gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    2. Azhdari, Armaghan & Ardakan, Mostafa Abouei & Najafi, Mojtaba, 2023. "An approach for reliability optimization of a multi-state centralized network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. Wang, Yifei & Xie, Mingjiang & Su, Chun, 2024. "Multi-objective maintenance strategy for corroded pipelines considering the correlation of different failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Zerouali, Bilal & Sahraoui, Yacine & Nahal, Mourad & Chateauneuf, Alaa, 2024. "Reliability-based maintenance optimization of long-distance oil and gas transmission pipeline networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:238:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023003459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.