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Bayesian reliability analysis of complex k-out-of-n: â„“ systems under degradation performance

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  • Saberzadeh, Zahra
  • Razmkhah, Mostafa
  • Amini, Mohammad

Abstract

Consider a complex k-out-of-n system consisting of n independent elements each having some dependent components. This paper investigates the reliability of such complex systems based on degradation data systematically. A flexible class of multivariate stochastic processes is proposed to describe the dependence structure of the components by a copula function. Assuming the degradation of each component is modeled by a stochastic process, the reliability of a complex system is derived. A two-step Bayesian approach is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the model and it is implemented with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. Also, Bayesian bootstrap method is applied to estimate system reliability and its credible interval. Moreover, a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to validate our statistical approach. Finally, the applicability of the proposed modeling framework of system reliability is illustrated using two real examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Saberzadeh, Zahra & Razmkhah, Mostafa & Amini, Mohammad, 2023. "Bayesian reliability analysis of complex k-out-of-n: â„“ systems under degradation performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022006354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.109020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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