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Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen

Author

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  • Haugen, Stein
  • Vinnem, Jan Erik

Abstract

Black swans have been discussed lately. Some recent contributions to the understanding of black swans have been provided by Aven [1] and Aven and Krohn [3]. It is important to be aware of events which may come as complete surprise, which creates uncertainty in the risk assessment. This is consistent with the proposed revision of the definition of risk by Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) [Norway]. But we should at the same time also try to look beyond this and see how we can use this concept to avoid serious accidents or at least reduce the consequences should accidents occur. In this paper we proposed to restrict the black swan concept to unknown unknowns. Cases illustrate how the wider definition may lead to misleading and unfortunate effects that will not lead to good risk management practices. The wider definitions proposed by Aven & Krohn are proposed to be counterproductive if seen in a risk management context.

Suggested Citation

  • Haugen, Stein & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2015. "Perspectives on risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:137:y:2015:i:c:p:1-5
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.12.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2010. "Risk analysis and risk acceptance criteria in the planning processes of hazardous facilities—A case of an LNG plant in an urban area," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 662-670.
    2. Aven, Terje & Krohn, Bodil S., 2014. "A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    4. Jan-Erik Vinnem, 2013. "Use of accident precursor event investigations in the understanding of major hazard risk potential in the Norwegian offshore industry," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(1), pages 66-79, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glette-Iversen, Ingrid & Aven, Terje, 2021. "On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    3. Martínez-Galán Fernández, Pablo & Guillén López, Antonio J. & Márquez, Adolfo Crespo & Gomez Fernández, Juan Fco. & Marcos, Jose Antonio, 2022. "Dynamic Risk Assessment for CBM-based adaptation of maintenance planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    4. Yulia Vertakova & Inga Vselenskaya & Vladimir Plotnikov, 2021. "Mergers and Acquisitions Risk Modeling," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, September.

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