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Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918–1920

Author

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  • Barro, Robert J.
  • Ursúa, José F.
  • Weng, Joanna

Abstract

Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918–1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918–1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. Higher flu death rates also decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

Suggested Citation

  • Barro, Robert J. & Ursúa, José F. & Weng, Joanna, 2022. "Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918–1920," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 21-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:21-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2022.01.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    2. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
    3. Christina E. Mills & James M. Robins & Marc Lipsitch, 2004. "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7019), pages 904-906, December.
    4. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mona Foertsch & Felix Roesel, 2023. "Public Infrastructure and Regional Resilience: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Flu in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 10705, CESifo.
    2. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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