IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v52y2012i3p322-332.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Hoe, SingRu
  • David Diltz, J.

Abstract

We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called “profit split” ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoe, SingRu & David Diltz, J., 2012. "A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 322-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:52:y:2012:i:3:p:322-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976912000282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    2. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    5. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    7. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    8. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank Bodendorf & Manuel Lutz & Jörg Franke, 2021. "Valuation and pricing of software licenses to support supplier–buyer negotiations: A case study in the automotive industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1686-1702, October.
    2. Morreale, Azzurra & Robba, Serena & Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Roma, Paolo, 2017. "A real options game of alliance timing decisions in biopharmaceutical research and development," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1189-1202.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2003. "Patents and R&D as Real Options," NBER Working Papers 10114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2002. "Patents and R& D as Real Options," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt86b1n43k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    4. Larsson, Karl & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 504-514, May.
    5. Ángel León & Diego Piñeiro, 2004. "Valuation of a Biotech Company: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0420, CEMFI.
    6. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4320-4333.
    7. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    8. Abdullah Almansour & Margaret Insley, 2016. "The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2), pages 61-88, April.
    9. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    10. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    11. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    12. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.
    13. Hsu, Jason C. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2008. "A model of R&D valuation and the design of research incentives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 350-367, December.
    14. Garcia Fronti, Javier, 2015. "Modelo estocástico para la valuación de una inversión nanomédica [Nanomedical Stochastic Investment Valuation]," MPRA Paper 63948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jain, Shashi & Roelofs, Ferry & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2013. "Valuing modular nuclear power plants in finite time decision horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 625-636.
    16. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    17. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2022. "Optimal technology adoption for power generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    19. Gamba, Andrea & Tesser, Matteo, 2009. "Structural estimation of real options models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 798-816, April.
    20. Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:52:y:2012:i:3:p:322-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.