IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v208y2022ics0047272722000299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are deficits free?

Author

Listed:
  • Brumm, Johannes
  • Feng, Xiangyu
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence
  • Kubler, Felix

Abstract

Deficit finance, a.k.a. pay-go policy, is free when growth rates routinely exceed safe government borrowing rates. Or so many say. This note presents four counterexamples based on four versions of a simple OLG economy. In each version the growth rate exceeds the safe rate for one of four reasons – uninsured idiosyncratic risk, uninsured aggregate risk, policy uncertainty, and imperfect financial intermediation. Deficit finance does not directly address any of these problems. What works, respectively speaking, is progressive taxation, bilateral intergenerational risk-sharing, early policy resolution, and improved intermediation. The four examples thus show that seemingly free deficits may be more costly than they appear. Indeed, inefficient pay-go policy can even lower the government’s borrowing rate, encouraging yet more deficit finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Brumm, Johannes & Feng, Xiangyu & Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix, 2022. "Are deficits free?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:208:y:2022:i:c:s0047272722000299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272722000299
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104627?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8607 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sebastian, Sannikov, Yuliy Merkel & Sebastian Merkel, 2021. "Debt as Safe Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 9500, CESifo.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    4. Blanchard Olivier & Weil Philippe, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Johannes Brumm & Xiangyu Feng & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler, 2021. "When Interest Rates Go Low, Should Public Debt Go High?," NBER Working Papers 28951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hurst, Erik & Willen, Paul, 2007. "Social security and unsecured debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1273-1297, August.
    7. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public debt when r," Discussion Papers 2111, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8607 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public dept when r," BIS Working Papers 939, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    11. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    13. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2021. "Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies with Low Interest Rates," Staff Report 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    15. Mark A. Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2021. "Micro Risks and (Robust) Pareto Improving Policies," NBER Working Papers 28996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Johannes Brumm & Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler, 2020. "Leveraging Posterity's Prosperity?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 152-156, May.
    17. Philippe Weil & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "Debt Ponzi games and dynamic efficiency under uncertainty," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13442, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    19. Hubbard, R Glenn & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Social Security and Individual Welfare: Precautionary Saving, Borrowing Constraints, and the Payroll Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 630-646, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amol Amol & Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2022. "Permanent Primary Deficits, Idiosyncratic Long-Run Risk, and Growth," Working Papers 794, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leland Farmer & Roger Farmer, 2022. "Zoomers and Boomers: Asset Prices and Intergenerational Inequality," NBER Working Papers 30419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gersbach, Hans & Rochet, Jean-Charles & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2023. "Public Debt and the Balance Sheet of the Private Sector," TSE Working Papers 23-1412, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. HIRAGUCHI Ryoji, 2023. "Optimal Government Debt Policy in the Overlapping Generations Model with Idiosyncratic Capital Return Risk," Discussion papers 23063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 491-509, May.
    5. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2023. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity: Optimal Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(11), pages 3233-3264.
    6. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin, 2023. "Low safe interest rates: A case for dynamic inefficiency?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 633-656, December.
    7. Amol Amol & Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2022. "Permanent Primary Deficits, Idiosyncratic Long-Run Risk, and Growth," Working Papers 794, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Robert Barro, 2023. "r Minus g," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 1-17, April.
    9. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2024. "A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2612-2654.
    10. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the great pause," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 783-793.
    12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    14. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    15. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    16. Kersten Kellermann & Carsten-Henning Schlag, 2021. "Überakkumulation oder Investitionslücke? [Over Accumulation or Investment Gap?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(12), pages 964-970, December.
    17. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Malley, James & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of funding U.S. infrastructure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2021-37, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    20. Alisdair McKay, 2011. "Household Saving Behavior and Social Security Privatization," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-027, Boston University - Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:208:y:2022:i:c:s0047272722000299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.