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Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South Asia☆

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  • Lee, Jean N.
  • Mahmud, Mahreen
  • Morduch, Jonathan
  • Ravindran, Saravana
  • Shonchoy, Abu S.

Abstract

The initial spread of COVID-19 halted economic activity as countries around the world restricted the mobility of their citizens. As a result, many migrant workers returned home, spreading the virus across borders. We investigate the relationship between migrant movements and the spread of COVID-19 using district-day-level data from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan (the 1st, 6th, and 7th largest sources of international migrant workers). We find that during the initial stage of the pandemic, a 1 SD increase in prior international out-migration relative to the district-wise average in India and Pakistan predicts a 48% increase in the number of cases per capita. In Bangladesh, however, the estimates are not statistically distinguishable from zero. Domestic out-migration predicts COVID-19 diffusion in India, but not in Bangladesh and Pakistan. In all three countries, the association of COVID-19 cases per capita and measures of international out-migration increases over time. The results show how migration data can be used to predict coronavirus hotspots. More broadly, the results are consistent with large cross-border negative externalities created by policies aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 in migrant-receiving countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Jean N. & Mahmud, Mahreen & Morduch, Jonathan & Ravindran, Saravana & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2021. "Migration, externalities, and the diffusion of COVID-19 in South Asia☆," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:193:y:2021:i:c:s0047272720301766
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kashif Malik & Muhammad Meki & Jonathan Morduch & Timothy Ogden & Simon Quinn & Farah Said, 0. "COVID-19 and the future of microfinance: evidence and insights from Pakistan," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 138-168.
    2. Korinek, Anton & Bethune, Zachary, 2020. "COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods," CEPR Discussion Papers 14596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens," World Bank Publications - Reports 33634, The World Bank Group.
    4. Milusheva,Sveta, 2020. "Using Mobile Phone Data to Reduce Spread of Disease," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9198, The World Bank.
    5. Kashif Malik & Muhammad Meki & Jonathan Morduch & Timothy Ogden & Simon Quinn & Farah Said, 2020. "COVID-19 and the future of microfinance: evidence and insights from Pakistan," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 138-168.
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    Cited by:

    1. Upasak Das & Rupayan Pal & Udayan Rathore & Bibhas Saha, 2023. "Rein in pandemic by pricing vaccine: Does social trust matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Simone Schotte & Michael Danquah & Robert Darko Osei & Kunal Sen, 2023. "The Labour Market Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 10-33.
    3. Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Yao, Iris, 2023. "JUE Insight: Urban flight seeded the COVID-19 pandemic across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Lucía Mejía-Dorantes & Lídia Montero & Jaume Barceló, 2021. "Mobility Trends before and after the Pandemic Outbreak: Analyzing the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona through the Lens of Equality and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    5. De Simone Elina & Mourao Paulo Reis, 2021. "What determines governments’ response time to COVID-19? A cross-country inquiry on the measure restricting internal movements," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 106-117, January.
    6. Sudha Narayanan & Christian Oldiges & Shree Saha, 2020. "Employment guarantee during times of COVID-19: Pro-poor and pro-return-migrant?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-034, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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