IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v572y2021ics0378437121001801.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implicit government guarantees and the externality of portfolio diversification: A complex network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Niu, Xiaojian
  • Niu, Xiaoli
  • Wu, Kexing

Abstract

Policy changes have a significant impact on financial markets. In this study, we build and calibrate a heterogeneous-agent model of a complex network using real data, then empirically examine the effects of policy changes on the risk contagion mechanism in the Chinese bond market. We find that the externality of diversification is positive, that is, a diversified portfolio can reduce the adverse effects of a negative shock, however, the positive externality weakened after the break of implicit government guarantee. Our findings show that policy changes influence the market through price co-movement and diversified portfolios. Moreover, the externality of diversification and the effect of policy changes vary between government and corporate bonds. Finally, investment strategies are proposed based on the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Niu, Xiaojian & Niu, Xiaoli & Wu, Kexing, 2021. "Implicit government guarantees and the externality of portfolio diversification: A complex network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:572:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121001801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125908
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437121001801
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125908?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2016. "Pathways towards instability in financial networks," Papers 1602.05883, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    2. Paulin, James & Calinescu, Anisoara & Wooldridge, Michael, 2019. "Understanding flash crash contagion and systemic risk: A micro–macro agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 200-229.
    3. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    4. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    5. Deev, Oleg & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2020. "Connectedness of financial institutions in Europe: A network approach across quantiles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    6. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    7. L. Bargigli & G. di Iasio & L. Infante & F. Lillo & F. Pierobon, 2015. "The multiplex structure of interbank networks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 673-691, April.
    8. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November.
    9. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-25.
    10. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    11. Brown, S., 1979. "The Effect of Estimation Risk on Capital Market Equilibrium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 215-220, June.
    12. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    14. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    16. Caccioli, Fabio & Shrestha, Munik & Moore, Cristopher & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2014. "Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 233-245.
    17. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    18. Samuelson, Paul A., 1967. "General Proof that Diversification Pays*," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, March.
    19. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1651-1684 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Zhu, Mei & Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Wang, Duo, 2009. "Does the market maker stabilize the market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(15), pages 3164-3180.
    22. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    23. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2011. "Market discipline of banks: Why are yield spreads on bank-issued subordinated notes and debentures not sensitive to bank risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 21-35, January.
    24. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2011. "Markowitz meets Talmud: A combination of sophisticated and naive diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 204-215, January.
    25. Esmaeilpour Moghadam, Hadi & Mohammadi, Teymour & Feghhi Kashani, Mohammad & Shakeri, Abbas, 2019. "Complex networks analysis in Iran stock market: The application of centrality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    26. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    27. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    28. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    29. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2017. "Pathways towards instability in financial networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    30. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    31. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2002. "Balance-Sheet Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 46-50, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Jiang, Yile, 2022. "Concentrated commonalities and systemic risk in China's banking system: A contagion network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Cuba, Walter & Rodriguez-Martinez, Anahi & Chavez, Diego A. & Caccioli, Fabio & Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin, 2021. "A network characterization of the interbank exposures in Peru," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    6. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    7. Paolo Barucca & Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Marco D'Errico & Gabriele Visentin & Guido Caldarelli & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Network valuation in financial systems," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1181-1204, October.
    8. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    9. Spiros Bougheas & Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk: A financial equilibrium networks approach," Discussion Papers 2022/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Xun, Li, 2022. "Insurance risk analysis of financial networks vulnerable to a shock," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 756-771.
    11. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Brinley Codd, Adam & Hill, John, 2017. "The decline of solvency contagion risk," Bank of England working papers 662, Bank of England.
    13. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    14. Roukny, Tarik & Battiston, Stefano & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Interconnectedness as a source of uncertainty in systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 93-106.
    15. Sullivan HUE & Yannick LUCOTTE & Sessi TOKPAVI, 2018. "Measuring Network Systemic Risk Contributions: A Leave-one-out Approach," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2608, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    17. Yongli Li & Guanghe Liu & Paolo Pin, 2018. "Network-based risk measurements for interbank systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, July.
    18. Hué, Sullivan & Lucotte, Yannick & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2019. "Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 86-114.
    19. Grilli, Ruggero & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Gallegati, Mauro, 2020. "Business fluctuations in a behavioral switching model: Gridlock effects and credit crunch phenomena in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Cao, Jie & Wen, Fenghua & Stanley, H. Eugene & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Multilayer financial networks and systemic importance: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:572:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121001801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.