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Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • dos Santos, I.F.F.
  • Almeida, G.M.A.
  • de Moura, F.A.B.F.

Abstract

We study the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil based on official data available since March 22, 2020. Calculations are done via an adaptive susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model featuring dynamical recuperation and propagation rates. We are able reproduce the number of confirmed cases over time with less than 5% error and also provide with short- and long-term predictions. The model can also be used to account for the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • dos Santos, I.F.F. & Almeida, G.M.A. & de Moura, F.A.B.F., 2021. "Adaptive SIR model for propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 569(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:569:y:2021:i:c:s0378437121000455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2021.125773
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bo & Yu, Zhenhua & Cai, Yuanli, 2022. "The impact of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19: Studying by a mathematical model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 590(C).
    2. Carmona, Julio & León, ángel, 2021. "Pandemic Effects in the Solow Growth Model," QM&ET Working Papers 21-1, University of Alicante, D. Quantitative Methods and Economic Theory, revised 07 Apr 2022.

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