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Modeling social distancing and “spontaneous” infection in an epidemic outbreak phase—Application to the 2020 pandemic

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  • Frenkel, Gad
  • Schwartz, Moshe

Abstract

We generalize the SIR equations for epidemic evolution to include the effect of social distancing and “spontaneous” infection. We show that the model, describes well the evolution of the corona 2020 epidemic in a number of countries, in the outbreak phase, defined as the period terminating with the first maximum in the infected fraction of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Frenkel, Gad & Schwartz, Moshe, 2021. "Modeling social distancing and “spontaneous” infection in an epidemic outbreak phase—Application to the 2020 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:567:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120310256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125727
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