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Exact properties of SIQR model for COVID-19

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  • Odagaki, Takashi

Abstract

The SIQR model is reformulated where compartments for infected and quarantined are redefined so as to be appropriate to COVID-19, and exact properties of the model are presented. It is shown that the maximum number of infected at large depends strongly on the quarantine rate and that the quarantine measure is more effective than the lockdown measure in controlling the pandemic. The peak of the number of quarantined patients is shown to appear some time later than the time that the number of infected becomes maximum. On the basis of the expected utility theory, a theoretical framework to find out an optimum strategy in the space of lockdown measure and quarantine measure is proposed for minimizing the maximum number of infected and for controlling the outbreak of pandemic at its early stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Odagaki, Takashi, 2021. "Exact properties of SIQR model for COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 564(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:564:y:2021:i:c:s0378437120308621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125564
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Bo & Yu, Zhenhua & Cai, Yuanli, 2022. "The impact of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19: Studying by a mathematical model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 590(C).
    2. Pascoal, R. & Rocha, H., 2022. "Population density impact on COVID-19 mortality rate: A multifractal analysis using French data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).

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