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Quantifying the correlation and prediction of daily happiness sentiment and stock return: The Case of Singapore

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  • Zhao, Ruwei

Abstract

In this paper, with the newly emerged Twitter happiness index, we employ the VAR regression, linear, and nonlinear Granger causality tests to investigate the predictive correlations between daily happiness sentiment (DHS) and Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) stock performance indicators. The empirical results reveal that DHS presents significant predictability with future STI return. While, for the realized volatility, no compelling forecasting powers are detected. We also perform another two subsample tests as robustness checks. In general, the subsample results are in line with those of the full sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Ruwei, 2019. "Quantifying the correlation and prediction of daily happiness sentiment and stock return: The Case of Singapore," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 533(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:533:y:2019:i:c:s0378437119311550
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122020
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steyn, Dimitri H. W. & Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanie & Mwamba, John M., 2020. "Sentiment, emotions and stock market predictability in developed and emerging markets," GLO Discussion Paper Series 502, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Văn, Lê & Bảo, Nguyễn Khắc Quốc, 2022. "The relationship between global stock and precious metals under Covid-19 and happiness perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Wei, Jiangqiao & Ma, Zhe & Wang, Anjian & Li, Pengyuan & Sun, Xiaoyan & Yuan, Xiaojing & Hao, Hongchang & Jia, Hongxiang, 2022. "Multiscale nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect analysis of the relationship between iron ore futures and spot prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twitter happiness index; Singapore Straits Times Index; VAR regression; Nonlinear Granger causality test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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