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Forecast of business performance using an agent-based model and its application to a decision tree Monte Carlo business valuation

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  • Ikeda, Y.
  • Kubo, O.
  • Kobayashi, Y.

Abstract

The stochastic-agent-on-tree method for business valuation is proposed by applying the game theory to the agent-based model. The proposed method is reduced to the real option valuation method using approximations. Demand forecasting and business valuation for computer-related industries are investigated as a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikeda, Y. & Kubo, O. & Kobayashi, Y., 2004. "Forecast of business performance using an agent-based model and its application to a decision tree Monte Carlo business valuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 87-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:344:y:2004:i:1:p:87-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.06.093
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124458901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ikeda, Yuichi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Souma, Wataru & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2007. "Response of firm agent network to exogenous shock," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 138-148.

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