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Towards landslide predictions: two case studies

Author

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  • Sornette, D
  • Helmstetter, A
  • Andersen, J.V
  • Gluzman, S
  • Grasso, J.-R
  • Pisarenko, V

Abstract

In a previous work (J. Geophys. Res. (2004)), we have proposed a simple physical model to explain the accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides, based on a slider-block model with a state- and velocity-dependent friction law. This model predicts two regimes of sliding, stable and unstable leading to a critical finite-time singularity. This model was calibrated quantitatively to the displacement and velocity data preceding two landslides, Vaiont (Italian Alps) and La Clapière (French Alps), showing that the former (resp. later) landslide is in the unstable (resp. stable) sliding regime. Here, we test the predictive skills of the state- and velocity-dependent model on these two landslides with a variety of techniques using (i) a finite-time singularity power law, (ii) the state- and velocity-dependent friction law and (iii) resummation methods extrapolating from early times. For the Vaiont landslide, our model provides good predictions of the critical time of failure up to 20 days before the collapse. Tests are also presented on the predictability of the time of the change of regime for La Clapière landslide.

Suggested Citation

  • Sornette, D & Helmstetter, A & Andersen, J.V & Gluzman, S & Grasso, J.-R & Pisarenko, V, 2004. "Towards landslide predictions: two case studies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 605-632.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:338:y:2004:i:3:p:605-632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.02.065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D.Sornette & J.V. Andersen & A. Helmstetter & S.Gluzman & J.R.Grasso & V. Pisarenko, 2003. "Slider-Block Friction Model for Landslides: Application to Vaiont and Laclapière Landslides," THEMA Working Papers 2003-33, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiuzhen Li & Jiming Kong & Zhenyu Wang, 2012. "Landslide displacement prediction based on combining method with optimal weight," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 635-646, March.
    2. Gianluca Martelloni & Franco Bagnoli, 2014. "Infiltration effects on a two-dimensional molecular dynamics model of landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(1), pages 37-62, August.
    3. Yan Du & Lize Ning & Santos D . Chicas & Mowen Xie, 2023. "A new early warning Criterion for assessing landslide risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 537-549, March.

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