IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v71y2022ics0927538x2100202x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy uncertainty and firm risk-taking

Author

Listed:
  • Luo, Weijie
  • Wang, Yong
  • Zhang, Xiaoge

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on firm risk-taking. We introduce a model to explore the investment behavior of a firm when greater monetary policy uncertainty occurs. The model predicts that, to limit risk exposure, a firm tends to lower its capital stock and thereby reduce its risk-taking. Utilizing the firm-level data from China over the period of 2000–2019, we show that MPU can significantly reduce corporate risk-taking. Moreover, we find that firms with financing constraints become risk averse when faced with MPU shocks. This paper sheds light on both theoretical basis and practical reference for firms to make better decisions on high-risk projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Weijie & Wang, Yong & Zhang, Xiaoge, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and firm risk-taking," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x2100202x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101695
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X2100202X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101695?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    3. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    4. Bluhm, Marcel & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2014. "Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 75-94.
    5. Mara Faccio & Maria-Teresa Marchica & Roberto Mura, 2011. "Large Shareholder Diversification and Corporate Risk-Taking," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3601-3641.
    6. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    7. Phan, Hieu V. & Nguyen, Nam H. & Nguyen, Hien T. & Hegde, Shantaram, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 71-82.
    8. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. Kose John & Lubomir Litov & Bernard Yeung, 2008. "Corporate Governance and Risk‐Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1679-1728, August.
    11. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    12. Gupta, Kartick & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, 2018. "Do macroeconomic conditions and oil prices influence corporate risk-taking?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 65-86.
    13. Kastner, Gregor, 2016. "Dealing with Stochastic Volatility in Time Series Using the R Package stochvol," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 69(i05).
    14. Yakov Amihud & Baruch Lev, 1981. "Risk Reduction as a Managerial Motive for Conglomerate Mergers," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 605-617, Autumn.
    15. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Wagner, Helga, 2010. "Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 85-100, January.
    16. Wen, Fenghua & Li, Cui & Sha, Han & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    17. Mulier, Klaas & Schoors, Koen & Merlevede, Bruno, 2016. "Investment-cash flow sensitivity and financial constraints: Evidence from unquoted European SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 182-197.
    18. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Marhfor & Kais Bouslah & Abdelmajid Hmaittane, 2022. "Does Firm Political Risk Affect the Relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Value?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Liu, Tingli & Chen, Xiao & Yang, Songling, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise investment decision: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Liu, Feifei & He, Xinming & Wang, Tao, 2023. "In the name of the family: The effect of CEO clan culture background on firm internationalization," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Ge, Xinyu & Liu, Yan & Zhuang, Jiali, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty, market structure and bank risk-taking: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wen, Fenghua & Li, Cui & Sha, Han & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    2. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    3. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    4. Vo, Hong & Nguyen, Tien & Truong, Hang, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: An empirical comparison of Korean chaebol and non-chaebol firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Zhao, Yan & Su, Kun, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Fu, Fanjie & Fang, Jing & Zhang, Fan & Yao, Shujie & Ou, Jinghua, 2024. "CEOs' hometown connections and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Vural-Yavaş, Çiğdem, 2020. "Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Hodula, Martin & Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Sorić, Petar, 2023. "Economic uncertainty and non-bank financial intermediation: Evidence from a European panel," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Fiori, Giuseppe & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2023. "The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty: Evidence using subjective expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-105.
    10. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Paudyal, Krishna & Thapa, Chandra & Koirala, Santosh & Aldhawyan, Sulaiman, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Yin, Libo & Lu, Man, 2022. "Oil uncertainty and firms' risk-taking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Nan, 2022. "Will the China's carbon emissions market increase the risk-taking of its enterprises?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 413-434.
    15. Li, Xiao-Lin & Qiu, Guojing & Ding, Hui, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate policy uncertainty shock on Chinese energy firms' risk-taking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    16. Zhang, Cheng & Yang, Chunhong & Liu, Cheng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: Loss aversion or opportunity expectations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    18. Ding, Yibing & Liu, Ziyu & Liu, Dayu, 2022. "Structural news shock, financial market uncertainty and China's business fluctuations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    20. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy uncertainty; Firm risk taking;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:71:y:2022:i:c:s0927538x2100202x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.