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Government reporting credibility as immunity: Evidence from a public health event

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  • Jiang, Christine
  • Zhang, Xiaori
  • Hu, Bill

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between the credibility of officially reported COVID-19 infection cases and the direct effects of the public health crisis on stock market performance. Employing the law of left digits, we estimate the likelihood of misreporting in official data to evaluate government reporting credibility (RC). A higher deviation from expected Benford’s distributions implies a greater likelihood of misreporting and lower RC. Our premise is that high credibility of government reporting during crisis mitigates the negative consequences of disasters through lowering investors’ risk aversion and bolstering their confidence. Our main results are highly consistent with this hypothesis. The positive influence of RC is particularly pronounced for companies situated in economies characterized by higher uncertainty and weaker governance before the crisis, and during periods of heightened market panic. Our findings suggest that the credibility of government reporting can act as immunity-like protection for stock markets in times of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Christine & Zhang, Xiaori & Hu, Bill, 2024. "Government reporting credibility as immunity: Evidence from a public health event," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:73:y:2024:i:c:s1042444x24000124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2024.100847
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Country reporting quality; Information environment; International equity markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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