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Rational bubbles and public debt policy: A quantitative analysis

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  • Domeij, David
  • Ellingsen, Tore

Abstract

Do empirically plausible dynastic general equilibrium models admit bubbles and Ponzi-schemes under rational expectations? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the answer is affirmative. The central assumption is that current securities do not represent claims to all future profits. Calibrating the model to U.S. data, we find that it is consistent with the presence of rational bubbles. The observed level of public debt is entirely a Ponzi-scheme. There are large welfare gains from eliminating bubbles on private assets and lodging all the non-fundamental asset value in public debt. Paying off public debt benefits only a small group of wealthy individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Domeij, David & Ellingsen, Tore, 2018. "Rational bubbles and public debt policy: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 109-123.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:96:y:2018:i:c:p:109-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Claus Michelsen & Michael Hüther & Peter Bofinger & Lars P. Feld & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Schuldenbremse — Investitionshemmnis oder Vorbild für Europa? [Debt Brake — Investment Barrier or Role Model for Europe?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(5), pages 307-329, May.
    2. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 491-509, May.
    5. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Equilibrium Selection in Pure Bubble Models by Dividend Injection," Papers 2303.05636, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    6. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Bubble Necessity Theorem," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-011E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    7. Gonzalo F. de-Córdoba & Benedetto Molinari & José L. Torres, 2021. "Public Debt Frontier: A Python Toolkit for Analyzing Public Debt Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-25, November.
    8. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2021-37, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2020. "Falling real interest rates, rising debt: A free lunch?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 778-790.
    10. David Domeij & Tore Ellingsen, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in UK Housing Markets: Comment on “No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets”," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1755-1766, July.
    11. Osband, Kent & Filoso, Valerio & Capasso, Salvatore, 2024. "The limits of limitless debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the great pause," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 783-793.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Incomplete markets; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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