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Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know

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  • Hatzius, Jan

Abstract

We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages—e.g., in the auto sector—can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatzius, Jan, 2024. "Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:148:y:2024:i:s:s0304393224001090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656
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