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Comment on: “The economic effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty” by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo

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  • Steinberg, Joseph B.

Abstract

The paper by Caldara et al. develops new measures of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) that are associated with reduced economic activity at the micro and macro levels, and uses a DSGE model with sticky prices and sunk exporting costs to illustrate the economic forces driving these results. This discussion provides two forms of additional context for the authors’ findings. First, I shed light on the reasons that firms care about TPU by linking the authors’ dataset to the U.S. input-output accounts. Second, I use a simple model of price-setting under nominal rigidities to explore the sensitivity of the authors’ quantitative results to some of their modeling assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinberg, Joseph B., 2020. "Comment on: “The economic effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty” by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 60-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:109:y:2020:i:c:p:60-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    4. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    5. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Trade Policy Uncertainty Effects on Macro Economy and Financial Markets: An Integrated Survey and Empirical Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy uncertainty; Tariffs; Sticky prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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